Fraud Loss Forecasting Analyst

At U.S. Bank, we’re on a journey to do our best. Helping the customers and businesses we serve to make better and smarter financial decisions and enabling the communities we support to grow and succeed.  We believe it takes all of us to bring our shared ambition to life, and each person is unique in their potential. A career with U.S. Bank gives you a wide, ever-growing range of opportunities to discover what makes you thrive at every stage of your career. Try new things, learn new skills and discover what you excel at—all from Day One.

In this role, you will lead all aspects of Consumer and Business Banking (CBB) fraud loss forecasting, including daily projections, monthly forecasts, and the annual planning process. You will be responsible for developing data-driven recommendations, challenging assumptions, and providing clear rationale to support forecast decisions. Success in this role requires strong analytical judgment, intellectual curiosity, and the ability to identify meaningful signals within complex and often conflicting information. The ideal candidate can synthesize emerging risks, historical performance, operational intelligence, and business changes into actionable insights and clearly articulated forecast assumptions.

Own the CBB daily fraud loss projection process end-to-end. Develop and recommend the monthly fraud loss forecast through data-driven analysis and sound business judgment. Lead the annual planning process for CBB fraud losses. Monitor emerging fraud risks, business changes, operational initiatives, and control enhancements; assess potential impacts and proactively incorporate them into forecasts and planning assumptions. Investigate forecast variances by identifying drivers, explaining performance relative to expectations, and recommending actions. Identify trends, patterns, and emerging fraud risks through analysis of large and complex datasets. Translate analytical findings into clear recommendations, reports, dashboards, and executive communications. Independently draft monthly executive summaries and leadership updates. Lead engagement with Operations, Finance, Claims, and other cross-functional partners. Facilitate monthly business reviews and drive follow-up actions related to fraud events, forecast performance, and emerging risks. Provide weekly loss updates, strategic insights, and forward-looking perspectives to leadership and stakeholders. Basic Qualifications - Bachelor’s degree, or equivalent work experience - Typically more than six years of applicable experience Preferred Skills and Experience Forecasting & Judgment: Demonstrated ability to apply analytical reasoning and business judgment in ambiguous environments. Analytical Problem Solving: Ability to identify performance drivers, connect disparate data points, and determine which factors materially impact results. Ownership & Initiative: Proactively drives complex issues to resolution and operates effectively with limited direction. Communication & Influence: Ability to communicate complex findings to senior leaders, manage stakeholder expectations, challenge assumptions appropriately, and influence decisions through well-supported recommendations. Strong analytical rigor, attention to detail, and commitment to accuracy. Proven ability to manage multiple priorities and competing deadlines in a fast-paced environment. Intermediate to advanced coding and data analysis skills (SAS, SQL, or similar analytical tools). Strong proficiency with Microsoft Office and data analysis applications. Bachelor's degree in a quantitative field such as Finance, Economics, Mathematics, Statistics, Data Analytics, or a related discipline. Master's degree preferred. LOCATION EXPECTATIONS:  This role requires working from a U.S. Bank Location three (3) or more days per week. NOTE: This position is not eligible for current or future visa sponsorship. If there’s anything we can do to accommodate a